This story appears in the 214-page VSiN College Football Betting Guide, out now, for VSiN Pro subscribers. Not a subscriber? Find a package that works for you.
It would be dumb to doubt Kirby Smart at this point. The Georgia coach has had a remarkable three-year run of success in college football that includes two National Championships and a playoff snub that blocked his shot at three in a row last season.
The Bulldogs sat in the No. 1 spot in the VSiN college football preseason Top 25 a year ago and stayed there until a three-point loss to Alabama in the SEC Title Game. It was a costly setback that sent Georgia to the Orange Bowl while Michigan, Washington and Texas joined the Crimson Tide in the four-team playoff. The Wolverines claimed a breakthrough championship for the Big Ten.
Smart cried foul, feeling his team’s exclusion was controversial. Georgia compiled a 42-2 record the past three seasons, falling twice to Alabama and Nick Saban, who was Smart’s coaching mentor. Saban has retired to a TV job. Smart is coming back as strong as ever.
“I’ve got Georgia and Ohio State No. 1 and No. 1A,” professional handicapper Paul Stone said, “but I gave the Bulldogs the top spot by an eyelash. One could make the argument that Smart had the top team in college football in each of the past three seasons.”
Smart’s team seems to be a near-unanimous pick as this season’s No. 1.
“I have Georgia on top,” Circa Sports college football oddsmaker Nick Bogdanovich said.
On the Circa futures board, Bogdanovich said, the Bulldogs and Buckeyes have attracted “a ton of money in the pool.”
Fox Sports analyst Chris “The Bear” Fallica recently bet the Georgia/Ohio State side at -110 in a college football National Championship prop against the rest of the field.
“I would rank Ohio State slightly ahead of Georgia. Those two teams are loaded,” said Fallica, who ranks Oregon third, Texas fourth and Notre Dame fifth.
The conference landscape is changing dramatically this year with Oregon, Washington, UCLA and USC ditching the Pac-12 to join the Big Ten, which now totals 18 teams. Oklahoma and Texas moved from the Big 12 to the SEC.
“I don’t think Texas is going to go to the SEC and become an 8-4 type team, nor are they going to be 12-0,” Fallica said.
Bogdanovich said SEC contender Mississippi has received “sharp bets” at 25-1 in national title futures, and the same goes for Big 12 favorite Utah at 70-1.
“We are getting some sharp money on some longshots with people hoping to take advantage of the new playoff format,” Bogdanovich said.
The four-team college football playoff was so restrictive that betting on longshots tended to be a fool’s errand. The 12-team playoff implemented this season opens the door for more possibilities.
“Admittedly, I’m a hard-core traditionalist, so I’m typically averse to change,” Stone said. “But I like the expansion to a 12-team playoff because it keeps more teams in the mix until the end of the regular season. I believe this gives us more pure betting opportunities since there will be more games where both teams are highly motivated.”
Stone took his shot at predicting the college football playoff field: Georgia, Ohio State, Oregon, Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, Notre Dame, Penn State, Florida State, LSU, Miami and Liberty.
Stone provided his college football power rankings, which I combined with my own rankings to form the VSiN preseason Top 25.
1. GEORGIA
Carson Beck was somewhat of a question mark at quarterback going into last season, when he matured quickly and completed 72.4% of his passes with 24 touchdowns and six interceptions. Beck will miss tight end Brock Bowers, a first-round draft pick by the Raiders, but he will love the addition of Florida transfer running back Trevor Etienne. Four starters return on the offensive line. The defense loses a few stars, yet always reloads due to elite recruiting. The Bulldogs will be tested by road games against Alabama, Texas and Mississippi, so don’t expect perfection.
2. OHIO STATE
After three consecutive losses to Michigan, it should be payback time for Buckeyes coach Ryan Day, who is 38-3 in Big Ten games. He catches a break by getting the Wolverines in Columbus, though Ohio State must face Oregon and Penn State on the road. Kansas State transfer Will Howard is the favorite to start at quarterback, and Ole Miss transfer Quinshon Judkins joins TreVeyon Henderson to form what could be the nation’s top rushing attack for new offensive coordinator Chip Kelly. The defense welcomes Alabama transfer safety Caleb Downs.
3. OREGON
In 50 career games at Oklahoma and UCF, Dillion Gabriel has passed for 14,865 yards and 125 touchdowns, in addition to rushing for 1,060 yards and 26 TDs. He left the Sooners and transferred to Oregon, where the offense again will be explosive. Ducks coach Dan Lanning is 22-5 in two seasons, with three losses by exactly three points each to Washington. Oregon hosts the Huskies and Ohio State, so the schedule sets up for Lanning to make a run at Big Ten and national titles.
4. TEXAS
How far can junior quarterback Quinn Ewers lead the Longhorns? Texas reached the playoff semifinal last season, but came up short in a 37-31 loss to Washington. Ewers drove the offense to the 12-yard line with 15 seconds left before misfiring on three passes amid dubious play-calling by coach Steve Sarkisian. It remains to be seen if this team will be better. Sarkisian is a top-notch recruiter who lured Alabama transfer receiver Isaiah Bond and other impact players in an effort to reload after losing several stars to the NFL.
5. ALABAMA
Kalen DeBoer, who coached Washington to the national title game, takes over for retired legend Nick Saban. There are many other changes with the Crimson Tide, who lost more than 30 players to the NFL and transfer portal. DeBoer has assembled a strong coaching staff and he convinced quarterback Jalen Milroe to return. While Alabama does get to play Georgia and Missouri in Tuscaloosa, the schedule is not kind to DeBoer. The Tide face road games against Wisconsin, Tennessee, LSU and Oklahoma.
6. MISSISSIPPI
With 10 veterans slated to start on each side of the ball, the Rebels will make a run toward the top of the SEC standings and a playoff spot. Ole Miss, which finished 11-2 with a No. 9 ranking (its highest since 1969) last season, will close the gap after being outclassed in double-digit losses at Georgia and Alabama. Jaxson Dart is an experienced quarterback who will trigger coach Lane Kiffin’s big-play offense, and the defense appears tougher. A manageable schedule should help Kiffin win 10 regular season games.
7. NOTRE DAME
Duke transfer Riley Leonard started against the Fighting Irish last season and is now their new quarterback. Leonard is one of several new faces on offense. The Notre Dame defense returns nine starters after allowing 15.9 ppg. Marcus Freeman, who went 10-3 in his second season as coach, is building momentum and recruiting at a high level. If the Irish can win their season opener at Texas A&M, a soft remaining schedule sets up for Freeman to reach at least 10 wins and get into the 12-team playoff.
8. PENN STATE
James Franklin is a polarizing coach who recruits well yet can’t get his talented teams over the hump, mostly because he can’t beat Ohio State. The Nittany Lions, who have lost seven straight in the rivalry, host the Buckeyes on Nov. 2. Penn State avoids Michigan and Oregon on a favorable schedule. Junior quarterback Drew Allar had 25 touchdowns passes to two interceptions last season, and stud running backs Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton also return. The defense shapes up as one of the nation’s best.
9. FLORIDA STATE
A leg injury to star quarterback Jordan Travis during a meaningless game against North Alabama wrecked playoff plans for the Seminoles, who were 13-0 before taking a humiliating 63-3 beating from Georgia in the Orange Bowl. Travis will be replaced by transfer DJ Uiagalelei, who played at Oregon State and Clemson. The offensive line is elite. The defense is rebuilt. Florida State should be fine until it gets real tests on the road against Miami and Notre Dame late in the season. Mike Norvell is an outstanding coach.
10. MICHIGAN
With enthusiasm unknown to mankind, Jim Harbaugh coached the Wolverines to a 15-0 national-championship masterpiece. Now he’s off to the NFL to energize the Chargers, and Michigan will look much different with a total of only seven starters returning. Running back Donovan Edwards and tight end Colston Loveland lead an offense that’s searching for a quarterback to replace J.J. McCarthy — is Alex Orji the answer? New coach Sherrone Moore draws a tougher schedule that includes Texas, USC, Washington and Oregon.
11. LSU
A trip to Las Vegas will tell a lot about the Tigers’ fortunes and future, as LSU opens against USC on Sept. 1. The departure of quarterback Jayden Daniels is not doomsday. Garrett Nussmeier takes over after passing for 395 yards and three touchdowns in a bowl win against Wisconsin. Brian Kelly, who’s 20-7 in two seasons in Baton Rouge, will put a good offense on the field. The run defense, even with star linebacker Harold Perkins leading the charge, could be a weakness. LSU will be happy to host OIe Miss, Alabama and Oklahoma.
12. OKLAHOMA
It’s time for sophom*ore quarterback Jackson Arnold to step up after a turnover-riddled Alamo Bowl loss. Arnold will lean on speed receiver Deion Burks, a Purdue transfer who starred in the spring game. Brent Venables is a defensive genius, but he remains a shaky head coach with much to prove. His back is to the wall while faced with a grueling schedule. The Sooners, who get only three SEC home games, will play Alabama, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU, Missouri, Tennessee and Auburn.
13. UTAH
Cameron Rising is the definition of an upperclassman. The Utah quarterback missed all of last year with a knee injury and is headed into his seventh season of college football. Rising’s ability to stay healthy and play without fear will be critical to the team’s success. Kyle Whittingham is a rock-solid coach who creates a culture of toughness in his program. While the Utes are picked to win the Big 12, they draw tough road games against Oklahoma State, Colorado and UCF.
14. MIAMI
The numerous game-management mistakes made by Mario Cristobal are impossible to overlook. Will the talented Hurricanes overcome their clumsy coach? Cam Ward is continuing a fascinating career that started at Incarnate Word in 2020 and continued at Washington State. Ward has made 44 career starts. The offense has big-time potential with wideout Xavier Restrepo returning and running back Damien Martinez transferring from Oregon State.
15. TEXAS A&M
Mike Elko arrives from Duke and represents a coaching upgrade after the disappointments of the Jimbo Fisher era. Elko will field a solid defense led by Nic Scourton, a Purdue transfer who led the Big Ten with 10 sacks. The offense will need a big boost from quarterback Conner Weigman, who’s back from a foot injury. The Aggies catch some scheduling breaks by avoiding Georgia, Alabama and Ole Miss.
16. CLEMSON
The Tigers have faded from national title contention the past two years, mainly because of mediocre quarterback play and coach Dabo Swinney’s refusal to use the transfer portal like other elite programs. If junior quarterback Cade Klubnik lives up to his recruiting hype, and he has fallen well short of it so far, Clemson can win the ACC. Nine offensive starters return. It would be a very good sign for the Tigers if the opener against Georgia does not get ugly.
17. TENNESSEE
If redshirt freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava is the real deal, the Volunteers could be hell on wheels. A five-star recruit who can run and throw, Iamaleava led Tennessee to a 35-0 victory over Iowa in the Citrus Bowl to jumpstart his career. Chris Brazzell, Bru McCoy and Squirrel White form a big-play receiver crew. Josh Heupel is an innovative offensive coach. The Vols’ depleted defensive secondary could be a problem, however.
18. MISSOURI
It’s wrong to call the Tigers sleepers in the SEC, but they do deserve more respect as legit contenders after an 11-2 season that ended with a Cotton Bowl win. Brady Cook is a quality quarterback and Luther Burden, who made 86 receptions for 1,212 yards, is a star for an offense that returns nine veterans. Running back Cody Schrader will be missed, and the defense is a question mark. Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and LSU are not on the schedule.
19. OKLAHOMA STATE
Few teams boast the experience of the Cowboys, who bring back 19 starters. Ollie Gordon will drive the offense after rushing for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns. Alan Bowman is not a quarterback who instills a lot of confidence, but he’s behind a big, veteran line and has an elite receiver to throw to in Brennan Presley. Mike Gundy, entering his 20th year as coach, hosts Utah and hits the road to Kansas State on consecutive Saturdays in late September.
20. KANSAS STATE
Avery Johnson, a promising dual-threat sophom*ore, takes over at quarterback. The Wildcats will try to run wild with Johnson, DJ Giddens, who rushed for 1,226 yards last season, and Colorado transfer Dylan Edwards. Chris Klieman is a dependable coach who wins with a ground attack and a gritty defense. Kansas State hosts Arizona, Oklahoma State and Kansas and should be a factor at the top of the Big 12.
21. LOUISVILLE
After coaching Purdue to the Big Ten title game and Louisville to the ACC title game in back-to-back years, Jeff Brohm is his own tough act to follow. The Cardinals, who took advantage of scheduling breaks last year, play Notre Dame and Clemson on the road. Brohm must get the most out of well-traveled quarterback Tyler Shough, formerly at Texas Tech and Oregon, to win 10 games again.
22. IOWA
Senior quarterback Cade McNamara returns from a knee injury to lead an offense that was the butt of jokes last season. The Hawkeyes were outscored 61-0 in season-ending losses to Michigan and Tennessee. New coordinator Tim Lester is promising to unleash an aggressive offense. Eighteen starters return for coach Kirk Ferentz, who offers no apologies for winning ugly with defense and special teams.
23. IOWA STATE
It appears the Cyclones have found another Brock Purdy. As a freshman, Rocco Becht passed for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns. Becht will get better behind a line that returns five starters and with an explosive group of receivers. Nine starters come back on defense for coach Matt Campbell, who could have the Cyclones in Big 12 title contention going into season-ending games against Utah and Kansas State.
24. USC
Is it Miller time for the Trojans? USC could replace star quarterback Caleb Williams with Miller Moss, who passed for six touchdowns in a Holiday Bowl victory over Louisville. UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava will compete with Moss for the starting job. Lincoln Riley will coach up the offense. A beleaguered defense will be much improved due to the hiring of coordinator D’Anton Lynn, who worked wonders last year at UCLA.
25. WISCONSIN
Luke Fickell went 7-6 in his first year coaching the Badgers, and he might not top that record this year unless Miami transfer quarterback Tyler Van Dyke triggers an improved offense. The Badgers will be typically strong on the offensive line, and Fickell’s defense will be solid with eight starters back. The schedule presents only a few cupcakes and features Alabama, USC, Penn State, Iowa, Oregon and Nebraska.
