College Football Best Bets from VSiN Hosts for the 2024 Season (2024)

These are the best bets from VSiN hosts and writers from the 2024 College Football Betting Guide. Get your copy here!

COLLEGE FOOTBALL PLAYOFF BEST BETS

Matt Youmans

Mississippi To Make College Football Playoff (Yes -130) & Over 9.5 Wins (-115)

Like him or not, Lane Kiffin has developed into an elite coach. He’s also a hard-working recruiter who’s using the transfer portal to his advantage. The Rebels are expected to have 10 veterans starting on each side of the ball, led by experienced quarterback Jaxson Dart. An accurate passer and strong runner, Dart accounted for 3,755 total yards and 31 touchdowns last season. Ole Miss finished 11-2 with double-digit losses at Alabama and Georgia. The schedule is more manageable this time with home games against Georgia and Oklahoma while the toughest road trips are to LSU and Florida. Expect the Rebels to make a run toward the top of the SEC standings, win 10 regular-season games and reach the playoffs. I’m betting Ole Miss Over for the third year in a row, although there is inflation from last year’s win total of 7.5.

Mitch Moss

Utah To Make College Football Playoff (+260)

The Utes have a lot going for them entering the season:

• Step down in conference
• No Texas or Oklahoma
• Decimated by injuries in 2023
• Those players return + tons of experience overall (7th year QB)
• Playmakers at every unit on both sides of the ball
• One of the best coaches in the entire country
• One of the best home-field advantages in the country
• Program has won 9+ games 13 times since 2003

Kansas State is the biggest challenger in the Big 12, and the two teams don’t play in the regular season. The +260 odds are too juicy to pass up, especially If the Utes survive a trip to Stillwater on September 21st. At that point I would project them to be around even money or even odds on to make the playoffs.

Zachary Cohen

Alabama To Win College Football Playoff (14-1)

The Crimson Tide have a better chance to win the SEC, or at least finish as runner-up, than people think. Doing either of those would put Alabama in the College Football Playoff. Well, if the Tide make it to the 12-team postseason, you’d be happy to be holding a 14-1 ticket.

I know that Kalen DeBoer has his work cut out for him in replacing Nick Saban, but do you really want to doubt this guy? Everything he has touched at the college level has turned to gold, and this year’s Alabama roster is better than what he had in Washington last year.

The Tide lost some real talent on both sides of the ball, but they have more than enough to compete. Jalen Milroe is back and should be one of the best quarterbacks in college football, and the Tide have a lot of players with game-breaking ability at running back and receiver. They also happen to be in better shape along the offensive line than they were a year ago —even with JC Latham now in the NFL. Defensively, six players with starting experience are back from a group that gave up 19.0 points per game last year. And coordinator Kane Wommack can be trusted to build an elite unit out of what’s left.

I just don’t think this program is going anywhere. DeBoer is going to have to prove a lot in Year 1, but this is still a talent factory and he should be up for it.

Steve Makinen

Oklahoma State To Make College Football Playoff (+800)

With its foremost rivals in the Big 12, Texas and Oklahoma, now off to the SEC, a very experienced Oklahoma State team could be a nice underdog wager as an option to emerge as a frontrunner this season. Most prognosticators have pegged Utah as the formal favorite, but HC Mike Gundy’s Cowboys host the Utes in a late September game and have 19 starters back from their 10-win team on ’23. Quarterback Alan Bowman is back at QB but will have to be better than last year, when he had a 15-14 TD-INT ratio. In fact, the overall experience is going to have to make a bigger difference this fall, as OSU only outscored opponents by 1.0 PPG last year in going 10-4. In what figures to be a very changed Big 12 conference, I like one of the mainstays to wind up getting it done.

Matt Brown

LSU To Make College Football Playoff (+135) & Over 5.5 SEC Wins (+120)

Before you scream that this is a homer pick, hear me out. It’s year three for Brian Kelly and it’s time to make a move. The talent in Baton Rouge is there. The defense that allowed about two thousand yards per game last season, now headed by former Missouri DC Blake Baker, will be better, if not much better. Despite losing two elite wideouts, the offense has plenty of talent and even a little bit of depth. The offensive line is solid and Garrett Nussmeier won’t have to be Jayden Daniels for this squad to win games.

But the biggest piece of the puzzle here is how pure LSU ran with its 2024 schedule. The Tigers dodged Georgia, Texas, Missouri, and Tennessee, while getting Bama and Ole Miss at home. The only road game the Tigers play all season versus a team with a win total set higher than 7.5 is Texas A&M (8.5).

The Tigers win all the games they are supposed to, and get a big win against either Bama or Ole Miss along the way to get into the playoff with two other SEC teams.

Stormy Buonantony

Utah To Make College Football Playoff (+220) & To MAKE Big 12 Title Game (+120)

I’m drinking the Utah Utes’ Kool-AId something fierce, especially with the team taking a step down in competition from the Pac-12 to Big 12. They went 8-4 last year despite being decimated with injuries across the board, which included having 3-4 QBs play (none of which were their actual starter who led them to back-to-back Rose Bowls, Cam Rising). Rising is back. Stud TE Brant Kuithe is back. Their defense should be elite. They have one of the best head coaches in the entire sport. AND they have a ridiculous home field advantage, going 18-1 the last three seasons, 27-2 over the last five at Rice-Eccles Stadium. I think they win the Big 12 their first year or at very least make the title game, go Over their win total and make the CFP.

Boise State To Make College Football Playoff (6-1) & Over 9 Wins (-110)

The Broncos were MUCH better than their 7-5 regular season record a year ago, having gone 1-4 in one score games. It’s my understanding that internally things had gotten pretty contentious under former head coach Andy Avalos, so much so that once Spencer Danielson took over the entire team’s “on edge” feeling completely lifted. Things snapped into gear the backend of the season and the Broncos ended up beating UNLV for the MW title. Danielson is now the full-time head coach, and in addition to adding former head coach Dirk Koetter to the staff as OC, brings back 15 starters. It’s a unit that includes four returning starting OL and the best RB in G5 football Ashton Jeanty (averaged 113 YPG, led the nation in yards from scrimmage and had 19 total TDs last season). When you look at the schedule, aside from a Week 2 game at Oregon, it’s fair to say every other game is winnable. Plus, they avoid Fresno State and get both Washington State and Oregon State at home. In terms of the CFP, I think the committee will have learned its lesson with Liberty last year (who once again has the easiest schedule in college football). Let’s say Boise State’s only loss is at Oregon, I give the Broncos a major edge over an undefeated Liberty or a one-loss Memphis because of their respective strength of schedule.

Mizzou To Make College Football Playoff (+175)

I had to do a double take the first time I really looked at Missouri’s schedule. It’s more about who they DON’T play than who they do. They avoid Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss, LSU and Tennessee. Their first real test is Week 5 at Texas A&M, giving them a realistic chance of being 7-0 when they roll into Tuscaloosa on October 26th with the backend of the schedule looking manageable. Defense will likely have some regression from a unit that helped the Tigers to 11 wins last season, but the offense is the star of the show with third year QB Brady Cook and one of the best WRs in the country, Luther Burden. It’s hard to imagine a likely double-digit win SEC team NOT making the CFP.

Wes Reynolds

Penn State To Make College Football Playoff (-150)

Once again, James Franklin is changing coordinators. Mike Yurcich was fired after the Michigan game last season and now Andy Kotelnicki enters from a successful stint at Kansas. Kotelnicki is the sixth offensive coordinator in 11 years at Penn State, but he is likely the most creative mind Franklin has ever hired. Throughout his time in Lawrence, Buffalo, and his other stops, the Kotelnicki offense has been built on pre-snap motion and shifts in hopes of creating mismatches whether it be in the run game or the passing game. It is a difficult offense for which to prepare and that should benefit QB Drew Allar, RBs Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen, plus Ohio State transfer WR Julian Fleming.

On defense, Tom Allen, fired last season as Indiana head coach, replaces Manny Diaz, who takes over the head coaching gig at Duke. While the Nittany Lions lost four players to this past year’s NFL Draft, seven starters are back including four of the top five returning tacklers.

Penn State will be favored in 10 of its 12 games (Ohio State and at USC the likely exceptions). They avoid Michigan and Oregon and do get Ohio State at home. Ten victories could get into an expanded playoff with only the Big Ten and SEC likely to get three or more teams each.

Jared Smith

Alabama To Make College Football Playoff +105

The “Make The Playoff” market is fascinating to me this year because of the expanded field, and I can see there being major volatility as we start to get a better feel of where the winds of the committee will blow. I also can’t see Bama being left out if you consider the talent and coaching. I know it’s a new regime, but it’s Kalen DeBoer, who might be the most trustworthy CEO in the game right now. DeBoer gets Jalen Milroe back and most of the OL remains intact. The skill position group is raw — especially at receiver — but the schedule is manageable early. They get a bye before the Georgia game, and another before their big road test at LSU in early November. I think 10 wins gets them into the playoff but also wouldn’t be shocked if 9-3 got it done when you factor in the committee’s SEC bias. This bet should not be priced at plus money.

HEISMAN TROPHY BEST BETS

Jonathan Von Tobel

Dylan Raiola (500-1)

This ties into my win total wager on Nebraska. The Cornhuskers have a very manageable schedule in front of them this season. If they take advantage of it, that means Raiola hits the ground running. It is a simple handicap, but should Nebraska win 10 games this season – an actual possibility – I’ll take a flier on the high-profile freshman who is starting at quarterback for a brand like Nebraska.

Rocco Becht (1000-1)

Rocco Becht was the fifth-best graded passer by PFF standards in the Big 12 last season, and he was tied for third in turnover-worthy play rate (2.6%). His top two receivers are back. Jayden Higgins (53 receptions, 983 yards) was named to the preseason All-Big 12 team. Jaylin Noel led the team in touchdown receptions (7). All five starters return along the offensive line. It’s a great setup for Becht, and the Cyclones have a schedule they could run through. Becht also has his shot at an early, high-profile win against Iowa at the start of the season. Iowa State could be a 10-win Power Four champion this season. I’ll take their starting quarterback at those odds.

Mitch Moss

Jalen Milroe (15-1)

Betting the winner of this award in the 2024 preseason might be a bigger crapshoot than any year in recent memory, but 15-1 was too good to pass up on him. After not playing well in a Week 2 home loss to Texas last year, Milroe was benched in the following game. He came back in the Crimson Tide’s fourth game of the season and helped beat 15th ranked Ole Miss 24-10. Starting with that game and ending with his SEC title winning performance over undefeated Georgia, the Alabama signal caller threw for 18 touchdowns, and ran for 10 more. I think Nick Saban is the best coach in the history of college football, and Bama will certainly miss him. But maybe not on offense. New coach Kalen DeBoer worked wonders with Michael Penix the previous two years at Washington, and I expect similar results with his new QB in the SEC. Milroe has two spots to shine before the end of September: Week 3 in Madison against the Wisconsin Badgers, and two weeks later at home in a rematch vs. Georgia. Watch out if he plays well in both of them and Alabama is 4-0 entering October.

Miller Moss (60-1)

Number grab. Had to do it. At the time of print his number is the same at some shops as his teammate, UNLV transfer, Jayden Maiava. Moss replaced Caleb Williams as USC’s QB in their 42-28 bowl game victory over Louisville last year, and proceeded to throw for 372 yards with six touchdowns in the process. Moss should put up phenomenal numbers in Lincoln Riley’s offense IF he starts for the entire season. After all, every QB under Riley has done just that since he became a head coach in 2017. Here is a list of where Riley’s former quarterbacks finished in Heisman voting since:

2017: Baker Mayfield (1st)

2018: Kyler Murray (1st)

2019: Jalen Hurts (2nd)

2020: Spencer Rattler didn’t finish in the top 10

2021: Caleb Williams took over for Spencer Rattler a month into the season

2022: Caleb Williams (1st)

2023: Caleb Williams didn’t finish in the top 10

Three firsts, one second, and three outside the top 10. Defense could catch some of the blame for last year. We’ve all been waiting for that unit to improve. Watch out if it ever does because Riley’s offenses will always put points on the board.

Tim Murray

KJ Jefferson (100-1)

“Physically, he’s the closest to Cam (Newton) that I’ve had.” That is quite the praise from UCF Gus Malzahn on his new quarterback. Malzahn was Newton’s offensive coordinator at Auburn in 2010 and will be calling plays this year for UCF. Jefferson spent five years at Arkansas before transferring to UCF for his sixth year.

The Knights have a loaded backfield with RB RJ Harvey (1,416 yards and 16 touchdowns) and Toledo transfer Penny Boone. Boone was MAC Offensive Player of the Year in 2023. If Jefferson can play like he did in 2021 and 2022 with Arkansas, UCF could compete for a Big 12 championship. Jefferson rushed for over 600 yards, completed over 67% of his passes, and threw just a total of nine interceptions over those two seasons. With the expanded playoff, if the Knights win the Big 12, Jefferson, a true dual-threat quarterback, could earn an invitation to New York City in December.

Dustin Swedelson

Jaxson Dart (15-1)

Five of the last six QBs who have won the Heisman Trophy were transfers. The one outlier was Bryce Young in 2021 at Alabama. Of that group, four took the trophy home after being at their new school for at least one full season prior.

Both Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray did it in their third seasons at Oklahoma. Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels won in their second seasons at LSU. Last year’s Heisman Trophy voting ended with three multi-year, starting, transfer-QBs finishing 1-2-3 (Daniels-Michael Penix-Bo Nix).

What does that tell us? Two things:

1. Developed quarterbacks are now hired guns and are able to go out and find the systems and situations that fit their play best

2. Continuity matters at the QB position in a college football world that has embraced the chaos of the transfer portal

Following all of this info leads me to Dart. The former four-star recruit returns for his third season at Ole Miss in 2024. He has combined for 61 combined touchdowns with 21 interceptions over two seasons. Three of his top four passing targets are back this season plus the Rebels added Antwane Wells Jr. from South Carolina. He should have a chance for his “Heisman moment” on November 9th when Georgia comes to The Grove.

Avery Johnson (25-1)

This year, the Wildcats return one of the sexiest Heisman picks in Johnson. In a limited 2023 role, the true sophom*ore was able to make highlight reel plays while combining for 12 total touchdowns. He showed what he was capable of in a full-time starter role by beating NC State in the Pop-Tarts Bowl, throwing for 178 yards, rushing for 71 yards, and finishing with three total touchdowns. With the offense built around his ability to attack teams in the air and on the ground, Johnson should be able to find the end zone at a high clip. That could give him a season statline that will force voters to send him to the other Manhattan at season’s end.

Brady Cook (40-1)

Oftentimes we see the Heisman Trophy go to the QB on the best team. Or it goes to a QB that puts up monster numbers. At 40-1, it feels like Cook is worth a shot to see if he can make a run and get into both of those conversations. For starters, Missouri’s schedule is very manageable. No Georgia, no Texas, with visits to Texas A&M and Alabama the two tough spots. However, both programs are transitioning to new coaches, while Missouri has a lot of continuity on offense. Cook returns his top receivers from a year ago, including potential top-five draft pick Luther Burden III. and a great red zone threat in Theo Wease. And while the Tigers lost Cody Schrader at RB, Georgia State transfer Marcus Carroll and Appalachian State transfer Nate Noel will keep defenses honest versus Cook’s arm. Missouri’s defense lost a lot, so there could be more shootouts in their future. That will give Cook a chance to put up big numbers in his third year starting.

Joe Ceraulo

Jaxson Dart (15-1)

This year’s Heisman race is WIDE open, and I haven’t seen nearly enough from frontrunners like Dillon Gabriel or Carson Beck to think that there isn’t tremendous value by just looking down the board ever so slightly. Among Power Five quarterbacks with at least 275 attempts a year ago, Dart was top 10 in passer rating and top 12 in passing yards. He also boasted a sensational 23/5 TD/INT ratio, while adding eight scores on the ground. If the Rebels are serious contenders this season, an upset win in Baton Rouge or at home against Georgia could provide Dart the signature “Heisman moment” he’d need to win this award.

Ryan Kramer

Kyron Drones (100-1)

A couple of truths about the current college football landscape. One, we are seeing more player movement at the top level of College Football today than we ever have. Two, Drones COMPLETELY transformed the Virginia Tech offense starting in Week 3 when coach Brent Pry inserted him into the lineup. Now we look forward to 2024 where the Hokies return the most production (opposite of player movement) on the offensive side of the ball in the country. For a dual-threat QB who has shown he can lead an offense to 50 burgers on a team that many feel will contend for a ACC championship and spot in the playoff, 100-1 is flat out insulting. Pick up a pizza bet and enjoy the ride down to +1500 by Week 3.

KJ Jefferson (100-1)

Very simple handicap here. Jefferson was everything for the Razorback team over the last couple years. Now he heads to Central Florida, coached by Gus Malzahn. The same Malzahn who happened to be the offensive coordinator for Heisman Trophy winning QB Cam Newton at Auburn. The Big 12 is as open of a conference as there is and as we saw last year preseason 50-1 shot Oklahoma State made their way into the championship game. I love UCF as a dark horse led by Jefferson, and if that happens I am certain he will be in the Heisman mix.

SEASON WIN TOTAL BEST BETS

Matt Youmans

Michigan Under 9 Wins (-135)

Not only did Jim Harbaugh bolt for the Chargers, the Wolverines lost 13 players to the NFL Draft, the most of any program. Only seven players who started return for new coach Sherrone Moore, who needs to work miracles to win 10 games. The key to Michigan being a surprise team is redshirt sophom*ore quarterback Alex Orji, who’s unproven along with the offensive line and wide receivers. The Wolverines host Texas, USC and Oregon and face Washington and Ohio State on the road. If they fall to all three top-five preseason opponents (the Longhorns, Ducks and Buckeyes), that makes a 9-3 finish the best-case scenario. There are too many new faces to think a 10-win season is realistic.

Iowa Over 8 Wins (-115)

The Hawkeyes win ugly with defense and special teams, but old-school coach Kirk Ferentz offers no apologies. Believe it or not, Ferentz finished 10-4 last year despite dealing with one of the nation’s worst offenses. New coordinator Tim Lester is promising to unleash an aggressive attack triggered by senior quarterback Cade McNamara. A big, strong line starts four seniors and one junior, and there is a deep stable of runners. A rock-solid defense is led by senior linebackers Jay Higgins and Nick Jackson. Michigan, Oregon and Penn State are missing on the schedule. Iowa could be favored in 10 games and catches another break by getting Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska in Iowa City. While the win total is 7.5 at some books, it’s now 8 at most spots. Expect at least eight wins.

Pauly Howard

Old Dominion Under 5 Wins (-180)

The Monarchs are only favored in two games this year and have a rough stretch of three straight road games, with the last two teams off of a bye. The schedule is difficult and they only return 10 starters from a six-win team.

They play at South Carolina and host East Carolina and Virginia Tech before the stretch of three straight road games. Not to mention, they play Texas State, App State, and James Madison after. Just brutal.

Zachary Cohen

Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins (-120) & Texas A&M Over 9.5 Alt Total (+220)

Mike Elko was able to turn a dead Duke program into a winner, so he should be able to revive Texas A&M. After all, Elko churned out elite defenses when he was the unit’s coordinator from 2018 to 2021. Elko also happens to be inheriting a roster that is filled with returning talent. Not only do the Aggies have some of last year’s best players back, including quarterback Conner Weigman, but some of Jimbo Fisher’s prized recruits are starting to develop into players.

As long as Weigman is healthy after a broken foot ended his 2023 season, I like Texas A&M’s offense. Weigman has NFL starter written all over him and there’s plenty of talent surrounding him at the skill positions. As for the defense, there’s playmakers at every level. And Elko is as well equipped as anyone to get the most out of them.

Of course, the Aggies do have some really rough spots on their schedule. They’ll face Notre Dame, Missouri, LSU and Texas this year. But all four of those games will be played in College Station. So, it isn’t crazy to think that Texas A&M can win three or four of those. But even winning two would put the Aggies in good position to win nine games. I also like the idea of throwing a little something on the alternate total, as I think 10 wins is within reason.

Florida Under 4.5 Wins (+130)

Florida gave up 27.6 points per game in 2023 and was outside the top 100 in both opponent yards per carry (4.8) and opponent QB Rating (146). They also gave up 38.2 points per game over the course of their five-game losing streak to end the season. The impenetrable defense that we have come to expect from this Gators program is gone.

Billy Napier now enters this new season on the hot seat, and he does so with a roster that is mediocre in comparison to the rest of the SEC. The Gators also have a daunting schedule. It’s very likely that they’ll only be favored in home games against Samford and UCF. Maybe they’ll also be small favorites on the road against Mississippi State. But that’s not enough when looking at a win total of 4.5. I like the Under quite a bit and you can get it at plus-money odds. The good news for Florida fans is that it’s almost DJ Lagway time.

Virginia Tech Over 8 Wins (-130)

This feels like it could be a breakout year for the Hokies. This will be Kyron Drones’ first full season under center, but he completely transformed this offense once Brent Pry gave him the nod last year. Last season, Drones threw for 2,084 yards with 17 touchdowns and only three picks, and he also rushed for 818 yards with five touchdowns. He’s as dangerous of a dual-threat quarterback as there is in college football. Drones also happens to be playing behind an offensive line that returns all five starters. On top of that, the Hokies have almost every key running back and pass catcher back in the mix. This offense should be explosive.

Defensively, Pry brings back 10 players with starting experience for a defense that gave up just 23.9 points per game. This group is absolutely loaded and should only improve with another year together.

As far as the schedule goes, things aren’t all that rough for the Hokies.The two toughest games are a road meeting with Miami on September 27 and a home game against Clemson on November 9. Perhaps a home game against Rutgers on September 21 and a road game against Syracuse on November 2 will test Virginia Tech. But I tend to think this will be a nine-win football team, and I wouldn’t bat an eye if you told me they won 10 or 11.

UCLA Under 5 Wins (+105)

Chip Kelly’s decision to give up a Big Ten head coaching job to be an offensive coordinator in the same conference was definitely a bit odd. It also left UCLA in a weird spot. However, the Bruins quickly pivoted to DeShaun Foster, an alum that is excited about this opportunity. Perhaps his energy and love for the program will lead to success, and bringing in Eric Bienemy as offensive coordinator is interesting. The problem is that UCLA’s schedule is a nightmare.

The following eight games could all be losses for the Bruins: at LSU, vs. Oregon, at Penn State, at Rutgers, at Nebraska, vs. Iowa, at Washington, vs. USC. Home games against Minnesota and Fresno State aren’t sure-things either.

Not only does UCLA’s schedule look horrible, but this defense lost a lot of talent from last year. And if that’s not enough, the Bruins also lost one of the most well-respected defensive minds in college football with D’Anton Lynn taking the defensive coordinator gig at USC.

This roster isn’t completely devoid of talent, but this has the potential to be an ugly year.

Steve Makinen

Colorado Over 5.5 Wins (-140)

The pressure surrounding Colorado’s football program last year was immense following the hiring of head coach Deion Sanders. While much of that hype has settled now to a manageable point, there are some extreme positives that have come out of the change. First off, the last two years on the recruiting/transfer trail have been unlike anything the program has experienced in recent years. There were some big wins to start the season last year as well. Now for ’24, Coach Prime brings back most of his key pieces and will be back in the Big 12 where his program belongs. The Buffaloes will also benefit from a system showing that close losses can be a galvanizing factor for teams that stay the course. In fact, of the 32 teams over the last 11 seasons that suffered 5+ close losses of seven points or less and brought back their head coach and at least half of their starters (11+), only two finished worse the next season. The average win improvement was 2.6 per season. That would put Colorado at 6.6 wins, a modest number if you ask me for a team this explosive offensively.

New Mexico State Under 4.5 Wins (-135)

You have to wonder what goes on behind the scenes when a coach just decides to hang it up out of the blue following two very successful seasons. On the surface, to me, it appears that former New Mexico State head coach Jerry Kill saw what was coming down the pike in Las Cruces and bailed just in time. The Aggies face a season in which their stability score going in is just 1. That means they have just enough starters returning to avoid the dreaded ZERO score. Not much more than that however. Besides Kill and his staff leaving, the biggest loss is QB Diego Pavia, who was good enough to land a Power Four gig in the transfer portal. Don’t be surprised if this team hits a wall this year. They fall into a dangerous transitional system of when teams are off of seasons in which they won 66.7% or more of their games against the spread and have six or fewer offensive starters returning, plus are breaking in a new quarterback. The 33 teams that have fit that bill over the last 11 seasons have dropped by an average of 18.4% outright, 19.6% ATS, and 5.8 PPG offensively. The five teams that added a new head coach plummeted by 5.8 wins per season! The new head coach is Tony Sanchez, who struggled to a 20-40 record in five years at UNLV. Quite realistically, this team would be a great bet to undergo the worst decline from ’23 to ’24.

Wes Reynolds

Indiana Over 5.5 Wins (-110)

New Hoosiers head coach Curt Cignetti has certainly not lacked confidence in his short time in Bloomington. At an introductory press conference he said “I win. Google me.” A quick Google search would show that James Madison went 19-4 (11-1 in 2023) over the last two seasons after transitioning from FCS where Cignetti took the Dukes to an FCS National Championship Game and to the National Semifinals twice in his first three seasons.

Cignetti hopes to bring that winning culture from James Madison to Indiana as 12 players (9 likely starters) and seven assistant coaches follow him to Bloomington. Granted, the Big Ten is a large step up from the Sun Belt, but unlike other programs that have to assimilate transfers from a wide variety of schools, Indiana having so many former Dukes become Hoosiers builds roster continuity immediately even with 31 new transfers in total.

New quarterback Kurtis Rourke transfers from Ohio, where he ran a zone read offense and accumulated 50 touchdown passes to just 16 interceptions in three seasons as the Bobcats starter.

Jonathan Von Tobel

Nebraska Over 7.5 Wins (-125)

Nebraska could be one of the most improved teams in the country this season, and its schedule is littered with opportunity. The Cornhuskers will likely be favored in the first six games of the regular season. It is not out of the realm of possibility Nebraska enters its road contest with Ohio State undefeated or with one loss. Much of this hinges on the play of freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, but the Cornhuskers have other strengths as well. This should be one of the more physical front sevens in the country. With an improved defense, better quarterback play and an easy schedule in hand, Nebraska is a threat to blow by this win total.

Cincinnati Over 5 Wins (-160)

Scott Satterfield might not know who his quarterback is until the first week of the season, but the rest of the roster is primed for a step forward. Fifteen starters return for the Bearcats this year. The offensive line is completely intact and includes one of the best linemen in the country in Luke Kandra. Corey Kiner is a 1,000-yard rusher who returns as well. The defense needs to make a massive improvement, but continuity should help. Cincinnati also has a manageable schedule which includes Towson, Arizona State and Houston. Look for the Bearcats to go bowling this season.

Texas A&M Over 8.5 Wins (-120)

The Mike Elko era begins this season, and the former Duke head coach has a loaded roster to work with. Eighteen starters return in total for Texas A&M, nine on both sides of the ball. The Aggies finished 19th in opponent EPA per play, allowed 5.2 yards per play and 3.4 yards per carry. Elko is a defensive genius who will be able to work wonders with this group. On the other side, quarterback Conner Weigman needs to stay healthy, but his talent is undeniable. If he can give new offensive coordinator Collin Klein a full season the Aggies should be able to greatly improve their offensive production. Texas A&M also drew a favorable schedule in the SEC, and will not play Georgia, Alabama or Ole Miss this season.

Boise State Under 9 Wins (+120)

Boise State is the apple of nearly everyone’s eye in college football, but there are some flaws with this team that should not be ignored. The Broncos do return their entire defense from 2023, but this was a flawed unit. Boise State allowed 6.1 yards per play. They finished 71st in opponent EPA per play (0.057) and 82nd in opponent EPA per play on early downs. The 25.8 points per game allowed by this unit was the second-most allowed in the last seven years. The Broncos also have some difficult road trips to Oregon, UNLV and Wyoming on the schedule. This is a play on the price. The market seems to have a blind faith in Boise State that I do not believe is worth paying for on the win total.

Adam Burke

North Carolina Tar Heels Alt Win Total Over 8.5 Wins (+180)

The Tar Heels are favored in 10 games for me this season and one of their underdog roles is as a half-point pup to rival NC State in the regular season finale. The only clear underdog role comes at Florida State, but the Tar Heels have a bye two weeks before that game and a bye week after.

New DC Geoff Collins was a mediocre head coach, but he’s been a spectacular DC at Mississippi State and Florida in his time. Former DC Gene Chizik was trending in the right direction, as the defense went from 114th in yards per play in 2022 to 65th in 2023. I think Collins can further that type of improvement. It is rarely a question of talent in Chapel Hill.

Offensively, the Tar Heels do have to replace Drake Maye, but Max Johnson has a 47/12 TD/INT ratio over his collegiate career and plenty of experience. He also returns an elite back in Omarion Hampton. Mack Brown’s seat is hot heading into the season, but Chip Lindsey has been a good OC just about everywhere he’s been and now he’s in Year 2. The offensive line was a point of emphasis in the portal and I feel like the talent level and the schedule give the Tar Heels the opportunity for an excellent season. Obviously, Over 7.5 at -115 is also good, but I think this is a team capable of blowing by expectations.

South Carolina Under 5.5 Wins (-130)

LaNorris Sellers may be a name to know as the season goes along, but the three-star recruit from nearby Florence, SC is a dual-threat QB looking ahead to his first season as a starter. He wasn’t the most accurate passer in high school and is a bruising runner at 230 pounds, but the Gameco*cks don’t have a ton of help around him. That is going to put a lot on Sellers’ shoulders and, most importantly, on his body. He’s likely to have a lot of rush attempts in Dowell Loggains’ offense and that means he’ll wear down.

The co*cks are favored over Vanderbilt on the road, but that’s it for me in conference play. Not only that, their smallest underdog role for me is 5.5 points at Kentucky in Week 2, where Sellers is likely to be making just his second career start. Coming into the season, he has four pass attempts to his name, all against Furman.

They’ll be a big favorite over Wofford and Old Dominion, but even if they hold up in all three favorite roles, that’s three wins. I don’t know how they get to 6-6, let alone the minute chance of doing better than that.

Tyler Shoemaker

Missouri Over 9.5 Wins (+135)

Per TSI, Missouri has the weakest schedule in the SEC and avoids Texas and Georgia. It would take them losing all three games at Alabama, at Texas A&M and vs. Oklahoma for them to go Under this total. They’re in the TSI preseason top five from a power rating standpoint and are projected 10.2 wins. Especially at plus-money odds, I really like Missouri to go Over 9.5 wins.

Josh Appelbaum

Illinois Under 5.5 Wins (-135)

Illinois went 5-7 last season, finishing at the bottom of the Big Ten West standings. A big reason the Fighting Illini struggled was their porous defense. Illinois allowed 353 points overall, the third most in the Big Ten. Illinois is only returning 10 total starters (5 on offense, 5 on defense) from last season’s squad, which ranks 53rd in college football and near the bottom of the barrel among Power Four teams. Bret Bielema is entering his fourth season as the Illini head coach, with an overall record of 18-19. Illinois is picked to finish 15th in the newly minted 18-team Big Ten, according to USA Today.

The betting market isn’t too optimistic when it comes to the Illini’s chances this season. Their win total opened at 5.5 with the Under juiced to -115 at BetMGM. Over the course of the offseason, we’ve seen the Under get juiced up from -115 to -135. Why are the oddsmakers forcing bettors to pay a higher price to take the Under 5.5? Because that’s where the smart money is leaning. Only 9% of bets have taken the Under 5.5 wins, yet it accounts for 57% (!) of the money. This is one of the largest “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancies of any team in college football (a whopping 48% sharp bet split).

Kentucky Over 6.5 Wins (-135)

Kentucky went 7-6 last season, finishing in the middle of the pack in the SEC East. The Wildcats will have to lean on a new quarterback as Brock Vandagriff, a former five-star recruit and transfer from Georgia, will take over under center. However, aside from a new signal caller, Kentucky will have the luxury of returning a plethora of starters from last season’s team. The Wildcats return 15 starters, including six on offense and nine on defense. This ranks Kentucky seventh overall among Power Four schools in terms of returning starters. The Wildcats return four of their five starting offensive linemen as well.

Sharps seem to like Kentucky’s chances of posting another seven win season. The Wildcats opened the offseason with a win total of 6.5 with the Under heavily juiced to -150. However, we’ve seen a huge juice adjustment since that time, as the Over 6.5 is now juiced to -135. In other words, we are seeing sharp “Under to Over” juice movement as the Over 6.5 wins went from +125 to -135. The Over is also receiving 86% of bets and 94% of dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy signaling heavy one-way support from both Pros and Joes.

Iowa State Over 7.5 Wins (-120)

Iowa State went 7-6 last season but finished tied for fourth in the Big 12 thanks to a 6-3 record in conference play. The Cyclones were led by their stout defense, allowing only 296 points, third fewest in the conference. Iowa State returns sophom*ore Rocco Becht at quarterback, who posted impressive numbers last season as a redshirt freshman (62.9% completion percentage, 3,120 yards, 23 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). The Cyclones return 18 starters from last season’s team, including nine on both sides of the ball. This ranks Iowa State tied for third overall in terms of the most returning starters among Power Four schools.

Wiseguys are leaning on Iowa State to win at least one more game than last season. Their win total opened at 7.5 this offseason, with the Under juiced to -150. However, we’ve since seen the juice completely flip from Under -150 to Over -120. Once again, this signals sharp “Under to Over” juice movement, as the Over has moved from +125 to -120. The Over is receiving 89% of bets and 96% of dollars, a heavy dose of both Pro and Joe action in addition to a big juice adjustment.

Joe Ceraulo

Ole Miss Over 9.5 Wins (-115)

The Rebels have a chance to really make some noise with a favorable schedule and an experienced QB this season. Only Tennessee and Missouri have easier schedules in the SEC, and Ole Miss will likely be underdogs in just two contests all season: at LSU and vs. Georgia. If they can steal one of those two, they’ll be very live for a shot at the SEC title game. With their road contests, aside from LSU, consisting of Wake Forest, South Carolina, Florida and Arkansas, I struggle to see a world in which 10 wins isn’t this team’s FLOOR!

Arizona Over 7.5 Wins (-115)

Could the Wildcats have asked for a better welcome gift to the Big 12 than the conference’s easiest schedule? I don’t think so. A year ago, this team started 3-3 en route to a 9-3 regular season finish. This year, they could very well start 2-2, after consecutive late-September trips to Kansas State and Utah, but I don’t see them losing ANY of their seven home games. All that’d be left if they run the table in Tucson would be to steal one road contest at BYU, UCF or TCU – none of which are projected for higher than an eighth-place conference finish. With Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan showing their loyalty this offseason by returning as the nation’s top-performing, Power Five QB/WR duo from a year ago, the Wildcats wouldn’t shock me if they turned in a top-four finish in the new-look Big 12 this year.

Stormy Buonantony

SMU Over 8 Wins (-115)

Even if SMU loses its toughest non-conference game vs. TCU and loses to both FSU and Louisville, the rest of the schedule is very manageable for those nine wins. They went 11-3 last season, beat Tulane for the American title and should run through this year’s schedule despite a slight step up in class joining the ACC. In my opinion, Preston Stone is underrated at QB coming back healthy after a broken leg prematurely ended his season. He had 28 TDs and six INTs on the year, but got better as the season went on with his TD:INT ratio at 17:1 over his last seven regular season games.

Ben Wilson

Iowa State Over 7.5 Wins (-120)

Of the new-look “Power Four” conferences, there’s no doubt the Big 12 is the most wide open with no team shorter than 3/1 to win the conference championship. With so much change and uncertainty in this league, the Cyclones bring the perfect mix of experience (most returning production in all of FBS) and physicality (2nd in overall defensive production behind only Texas last year). It took nearly half the season for QB Rocco Becht and the offense to find its footing, but a 446-yard showing in the team’s bowl game against Memphis was a clear indication of improvement throughout the year. Becht is back, as are four of his offensive lineman plus leading RB Abu Sama from 2023. The Cyclones have more than enough talent to build on last year’s 7-5 campaign by at least a win, and are worthy of a sprinkle at 10-1 to win the conference.

Will Hill

Colorado Under 5.5 Wins (+120)

The team that dominated headlines and social media last September is back. The concerning thing for this year’s outlook, however, was everything that has happened since last September. Despite a 3-0 start a year ago, Deion’s team limped to a 4-8 record, and struggled to keep QB Shadeur Sanders healthy behind a bad offensive line. The schedule gets tougher this year, and besides their opener against North Dakota St, there aren’t many games where they’re going to be heavily favored. Colorado was also one of the more fortunate teams last year in the turnover column, as they netted a +9 margin over 12 games. If Colorado gets off to a bad start, things could go sideways for a brash team that will get everyone’s best shot.

Michigan Under 9 Wins (-115)

So much of football is about the quarterback, and the coach. Coming off capturing an elusive national title, Michigan’s head coach bolted back to the NFL, and their quarterback was drafted 10th overall. Without Jim Harbaugh and JJ McCarthy, what’s left? Well, only seven returning starters to be exact, as a dozen other players from last year’s team will now be playing on Sundays in the NFL. The Wolverines climbed the mountain last year, but with all the talent they lost, staying atop the mountain without the fiery Harbaugh is too much to ask.

Sean Green

Syracuse Over 7 Wins (-120) & Win ACC (100-1)

There is a lot of excitement around the Orange this season and it starts with incoming QB Kyle McCord from Ohio State coming off an 11-1 season as a starter only losing to eventual national champion Michigan. New head coach Fran Brown takes over coaching duties and it’s not crazy to project their defense will take a jump up.

The real reason I’m high on the Orange this year is their schedule. You’d have to imagine a Syracuse alumni was drawing up the schedule the way things break for them this year. Four home games in a row to start off, which is ideal for breaking in a new HC and QB. October 12 at NC State is the first time they’ll be a dog and they may not be an underdog for the rest of the year until at home against Miami in the last game of the season. They avoid Clemson, Florida State and Louisville, three of the top four favorites in the conference. Speaking of that final game against Miami in the Carrier Dome, that could very well be for a spot in the ACC Championship and we’ll be thanking our lucky stars we got that 100-1 ticket sitting in our pocket.

UCLA Under 5 Wins (-115)

Even before DeShaun Foster went viral for his hilariously awkward press introduction I was looking to fade the Bruins this season. Let’s start with the fact that former HC Chip Kelly willingly went from being a head coach to downgrading to an OC in conference. Why did Kelly leave this former storied franchise? One would have to believe he feels they can’t keep up in the transfer portal and NIL days of college football. If Kelly doesn’t believe in the Bruins, why should bettors?

Even if UCLA is able to cobble together some momentum under first year HC Foster, they face arguably the toughest travel schedule in college football history. They start off the season at Hawaii which I don’t think will be as easy of a game as the line suggests and could be an upset win for the Rainbow Warriors. Then look at this run: October 5 at Penn State, then back to the West Coast October 12 for Minnesota, then back to the East Coast October 19 for Rutgers. They also have travel spots against teams with impressive historical home edges like LSU and Washington. The Bruins will top out at three wins, maybe four if they’re lucky.

Dustin Swedelson

Ole Miss Over 9.5 Wins (-115) & Win SEC (+650)

After getting smoked by No. 2 Georgia 52-17 last year, Lane Kiffin said “We’ve got to recruit at a higher level.” He added, “We’ve signed one five-star, they’ve signed 24. It kind of (does) show up at some point. We would have to recruit at a better level. Do a better job of recruiting.”

The Ole Miss boosters have since put their money where Kiffin’s mouth is and filled major needs in the transfer portal, especially on defense. Former Texas A&M DL and five-star recruit Walter Nolen will make an immediate impact alongside Florida DE transfer Princely Umanmielen, who was second team All-SEC last year with seven sacks. They brought in a bevy of options at RB to replace Quinshon Judkins who left for Ohio State in New Mexico’s Jacorey Croskey-Merritt and Miami’s Henry Parrish Jr. The offensive line was beefed with two Washington transfers after the Huskies won the Joe Moore Award for the nation’s top offensive line.

QB Jaxson Dart is in his third season with the Rebels and returns three of his top four receivers from a year ago. The more balanced looking Ole Miss squad will benefit from a schedule that has them hosting Georgia and Oklahoma. Their toughest road test will be October 12 at LSU. A win that won’t show up in the record, but plays into this bet, is that they don’t have to play Alabama this year.

Jared Smith

Oklahoma Under 7.5 Wins (+100)

I’m not sure anyone will have a tougher transition year than the Sooners. OU loses seven starters on offense including the entire OL, all-conference WR Drake Stoops, and signal-caller Dillon Gabriel who transferred to Oregon. OC Jeff Lebby also left to become the head coach at Mississippi State. OU hired from within and promoted analyst Seth Littrell to OC. Littrell was HC at North Texas for seven seasons and went a dismal 0-5 in bowl games. He called plays in the Alamo Bowl at the end of last season but OU was shutout in the fourth quarter and lost 38-24 to Arizona. So I have major questions about the Sooners offense this season. The defense should be a top-15 unit again under Brent Venables and will keep them in the mix, but I have doubts about them holding up in the weekly SEC gauntlet, and I have even more doubts about Venables as a game manager. The schedule-makers did the Sooners no favors either, playing six of the top eight in the conference.

Tim Murray

UCLA Under 5 Wins (-115)

New head coach DeShaun Foster did not inspire much confidence during his press conference at Big Ten Media Days, but that is not the reason I am going under UCLA’s win total. This win total has been on the move throughout the summer. The Bruins were dealt a rough hand when Chip Kelly left in February to take the Ohio State offensive coordinator job. In December, rival USC poached defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn away for the same position. The Bruins visit LSU during the non-conference portion of their schedule and play Oregon, Penn State, Nebraska, Iowa, and USC during conference play. The Bruins face one of the most difficult schedules in the country this year. It would be an impressive feat if Foster led UCLA to bowl eligibility in his first season in Los Angeles and I do not expect that to happen.

Iowa Over 8 Wins (-115)

The offense can’t be any worse, right? Iowa finally made a change at offensive coordinator as Kirk Ferentz replaced his son, Brian, with former Western Michigan head coach Tim Lester. Lester was the head coach of the Broncos from 2017-22 and spent last year on the Green Bay Packers coaching staff. QB Cade McNamara is back after dealing with injuries last year and Iowa added Northwestern QB Brendan Sullivan in the transfer portal. Last year’s quarterback play dropped off a cliff when McNamara got hurt.

Defensively, Iowa returns 86% of its production, second-best in the country according to SP+. Defensive coordinator Phil Parker enters his 13th season as Ferentz’s defensive coordinator and is one of the top coordinators in the country. Lastly, Iowa’s schedule is very manageable. The Hawkeyes will only be a clear underdog in one game (at Ohio State on Oct. 5) and they avoid Oregon, Michigan, Penn State, and USC in Big Ten play.

Houston Under 2.5 Conference Wins (-140)

Houston’s win total has been a market that has been pounded this summer. Instead of playing Under 3.5 wins, DraftKings Sportsbook offers a conference win total market. Year 1 for Willie Fritz is going to be a challenge for the Cougars. Houston has a top-10 most difficult schedule in the country. The Cougars will play five of the top seven teams in the Big 12 and do not play one of the worst teams in the Big 12, Arizona State. Houston will likely be an underdog in every conference game including a road trip to Provo on November 30 to face BYU. Houston only won two Big 12 games last year and I do not expect them to top that number in 2024.

Duke Under 2.5 Conference Wins (-130)

Similar to Houston, Duke’s win total has been bet down from 6.5 to 5.5 over the summer. The Blue Devils have a chance to go 4-0 in the non-conference portion of the schedule with only one game being a true “toss-up” at Northwestern. In the ACC portion, the Blue Devils could be an underdog in all eight ACC games.

Manny Diaz takes over for Mike Elko after Elko departed for Texas A&M. Additionally, QB Riley Leonard (Notre Dame), RB Jordan Waters (NC State), DE RJ Oben (Notre Dame), and DE Aeneas Peebles (Virginia Tech) all transferred. Duke did add QB Maalik Murphy from Texas in the portal and he is certainly an intriguing prospect. But, the Blue Devils return just 10 starters and face six of the top eight teams according to the futures board. Additionally, Duke does not have a rest advantage in any game this year. Both of Duke’s opponents are also coming off of a bye when the Blue Devils have their two bye weeks. Duke could challenge for bowl eligibility but three conference wins should be more challenging to achieve.

CONFERENCE FUTURES BEST BETS

Pauly Howard

Boise State to Win Mountain West (-110)

Boise State lost six games a year ago and still won the league. They have made the title game in six of the last seven years and are picked to win the league for the 14th straight year.

We hope for improved QB play and the main concern is Fresno State, who went 9-4 last year, but the loss of head coach Jeff Tedford is big. Many have Boise State as a playoff team, which pays 5-1.

Zachary Cohen

Utah To Win Big 12 (+320)

I was all over Utah in last year’s guide, but Cam Rising and Brant Kuithe never suited up for the Utes. Well, both of them are 100% healthy heading into this season. Utah also added USC transfer Dorian Singer, who had 66 catches for 1,105 yards and six touchdowns when he played for Arizona two seasons ago. Utah now has an offense that will be on par with the defense, which gave up only 19.3 points per game in 2023 and returns nine players with starting experience.

Also, Utah no longer has to battle with some of the top Pac-12 programs anymore. The Utes should find life to be a lot easier in the Big 12. Sure, road games against Oklahoma State and Colorado will present challenges, but I trust Kyle Whittingham more than any head coach in college football. And I’m not sure he’s ever had a team this talented.

I’d simply be stunned if this team doesn’t win 10 or 11 games, and I don’t see anybody in this conference giving the Utes a game in Arlington.

Jonathan Von Tobel

Wyoming To Win Mountain West (14-1)

Craig Bohl retired in the offseason and left the program in the hands of defensive coordinator Jay Sawvel. The Cowboys bring back 13 starters this season, a majority of which come on Sawvel’s side of the ball. They finished 46th in opponent EPA per play (0.003), 30th in opponent EPA per rush and the unit allowed just 5.2 yards per play last season. The continuity should allow this team to match the production from last year. On the other side of the ball, the offensive line brings back four starters, and the program’s top three rushers from last season are back as well. Wyoming makes just three road trips in conference play, the most challenging of which is at Colorado State. It gets Boise State and Fresno State at home. In my opinion, this price does not reflect the true odds of the Cowboys winning the Mountain West this season.

Dustin Swedelson

Kansas State To Win Big 12 (+400)

The Big 12 feels like a country whose overlords have backed out and left the land up for grabs to the natives. Without Texas and Oklahoma hanging over the league, this conference is wide open. If you were to power rank the coaches remaining in the Big 12, Kansas State’s Chris Klieman would be in the top three, with a strong case for No. 1. Week in and week out, few coaches in the country are as reliable as Klieman. Since arriving in Manhattan in 2019, Kansas State has the best cover rate, 65% (39-21-3), in all of college football. Sophom*ore quarterback Avery Johnson and running back DJ Giddens (1,226 Yards, 10 TD) give Klieman his most dangerous backfield of his tenure in the Little Apple. With seven starters returning to a defense that allowed 21 points per game, the Wildcats are in a great spot to steal the new-look Big 12.

Miami To Win ACC (+400)

The U will never be back, but it can win this version of the ACC. Florida State and Clemson have dominated this league, combining to win 11 of the last 12 ACC titles. Florida State is still complaining about missing the playoff last year and has to replace its top QB, two WRs, TE and RB. Clemson has decided it wants to handcuff itself by not utilizing the transfer portal to improve. That leaves the ACC title susceptible to get taken.

Despite the entire country recruiting Miami’s backyard for offensive weapons, it has been a long time since the Hurricanes had this much legitimate firepower on offense. The two headliners are QB Cam Ward and RB Damien Martinez coming in from Washington State and Oregon State, respectively. Ward brings as much experience as any QB in the country to Coral Gables. The two-time transfer has thrown for 13,874 career passing yards and 135 combined TDs in his four year career. Martinez is coming off back-to-back seasons of averaging 6.1 yards per carry and at least 900 rushing yards.

Add those two to an offense that returns reliable passing weapons in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George, a strong offensive line and a defense that will solve its secondary concerns in the transfer portal. Even Mario Cristobal will have a hard time screwing this up in 2024.

Adam Burke

Appalachian State To Win Sun Belt (+275)

This is a team that has won at least nine games every season but two since joining FBS in 2014 and all of the pieces are back to be special once again. Returning QB Joey Aguilar is a top-five passer in program history after one season. Kanye Roberts is a great running back who averaged 5.7 yards per carry and likely learned a lot from Nate Noel, who is now in the SEC.

The App State defense finished outside the top 50 in yards per play for the first time in their FBS history. I can’t see that happening again and have them power-rated at least 3.5 points better than any other team in the conference. They avoid Texas State and Troy in conference regular season action and I have them favored in every conference game by at least 3.5 points.

The bye weeks are well-timed (Weeks 8 and 12) and top contenders in the East Division like Coastal Carolina and James Madison are replacing far more than App State will be.